Fuel-switch calculator · Natural gas

Gas to heat pump
savings calculator.

Natural gas is the cheapest heating fuel in the US by a wide margin — hardest for heat pumps to beat on pure running cost. Whether the switch makes sense depends heavily on your gas vs electric rate ratio, local climate, and whether you value cooling, air quality, or electrification. Get the honest number for your ZIP.

01.

Gas often wins on pure running cost

In regions with cheap gas ($1.20–$1.80/therm) and expensive electricity ($0.20+/kWh), a 95% AFUE gas furnace can be cheaper to run than even a premium mini-split. We don't hide this — you'll see both numbers side by side.

02.

Cooling is the value unlock

Most homes with gas furnaces also have central AC. Replacing both with a single mini-split system — one outdoor unit, one maintenance contract, one set of filters — is where the economics shift. If your AC is due for replacement, compare its cost against the full mini-split install.

03.

The electrification case

Beyond running cost, the case for leaving gas: no CO emissions indoors, no gas leaks, no connection fee (~$15–$35/mo in many utilities), smoother future value as homes without gas connections become the norm. Running-cost is one input of four or five.

Step 01

Where is your home?

ZIP Code

We pull your local climate and electricity rate automatically.

Step 02

Your space

Square feet

Whole home, or the single room you're conditioning.

Step 03

Your current heating / cooling

Pick how your home is heated and cooled today. We'll show you which efficiency numbers to enter.

Current system

System type

Furnace AFUE (%)

On the nameplate or manual. Pre-2000 furnaces: ~78–82%. Modern high-efficiency: 90–98%.

Do you also have central AC?

Central AC SEER2

▾

Pre-2023 units report plain SEER — subtract about 1 to approximate SEER2 (e.g., a SEER 16 unit is ~SEER2 15).

Step 04

The new mini-split

Pick the efficiency ratings of the unit you're considering.

New mini-split

SEER2 (cooling)

▾

Typical DIY range: 18–28. Most popular units sell around 22.

HSPF2 (heating)

▾

Typical range: 8–11. Cold-climate units reach 10+.

Step 05

Calibrate with your utility bill — optional

Last 12 months of HVAC spending. When provided, we scale our estimate so it matches your actual spend — the single biggest accuracy boost per NREL ResStock.

Estimated annual HVAC cost ($)

Rough number is fine — skip if unsure. We'll use our model's estimate as a fallback.

1,500 sqft · 1 current system · 1 mini-split

Questions we get

Does the federal tax credit help with gas-to-heat-pump?: As of 2026, no. The federal 25C Energy Efficient Home Improvement Credit was repealed at the end of 2025. State and utility rebates (Mass Save, NYSERDA, PG&E, Xcel, etc.) are now the entire incentive stack — many are still substantial, often $2,000–$10,000 per installation.
What's the break-even electricity rate where heat pumps beat gas?: Rough rule: if your electricity rate (cents/kWh) divided by your gas rate ($/therm) is under 3, mini-splits win. In most of the Northeast and California, that ratio is favorable. In the Midwest and Plains, gas usually wins on pure running cost.
Is a hybrid / dual-fuel setup smart?: Often yes. Keep the existing gas furnace, add a mini-split (or ducted heat pump) for primary heat in shoulder seasons and cooling. When outdoor temps drop below a switchover point (typically 25–35°F depending on rates), the gas takes over. Lowest total cost, zero weather risk.
What about efficient condensing gas furnaces?: If your gas furnace is newer than 2015 and running 90%+ AFUE, the heat pump switch has a longer payback. If it's pre-2006 (78% AFUE), the switch often pays back faster because you're replacing ~25% loss you can feel on the bill.